Calculation Details & Scientific Methodology

Full transparency into the formulas, calculations, and scientific evidence behind every fueling plan recommendation.

For the science geeks: This page shows exactly how we calculate every value in your fueling plan. All formulas are based on peer-reviewed research from leading sports nutrition scientists. Feel free to verify our math!

1. VO2max Estimation

Formula: Daniels & Gilbert (1979) velocity-based estimation with age and gender adjustments

Reference: Daniels J, Gilbert J. Oxygen Power - Performance tables for distance runners. 1979

Step-by-Step Calculation

  1. Calculate velocity: v = distance (meters) / time (minutes)
  2. Base VO2 estimation: VO2 = -4.60 + (0.182258 × v) + (0.000104 × v²)
  3. Adjust for race distance (%VO2max used):
    • 5-10K: ÷ 0.95 (running at ~95% VO2max)
    • Half marathon: ÷ 0.90 (running at ~90% VO2max)
    • Marathon: ÷ 0.82 (running at ~82% VO2max)
    • Ultra: ÷ 0.75 (running at ~75% VO2max)
  4. Age adjustment: VO2max × (1 - ((age - 25) × 0.005))
  5. Gender adjustment: VO2max × 0.90 (for females)
  6. Bounds check: Clamp between 20-85 ml/kg/min

Example Calculation

Male runner, age 35, 10K in 40 minutes:

v = 10,000m / 40min = 250 m/min

VO2 = -4.60 + (0.182258 × 250) + (0.000104 × 250²)

VO2 = -4.60 + 45.5645 + 6.5 = 47.4645 ml/kg/min

10K adjustment (÷0.95): 47.4645 / 0.95 = 49.96 ml/kg/min

Age adjustment (×0.95): 49.96 × 0.95 = 47.46 ml/kg/min

Final VO2max: 47.5 ml/kg/min

Note: The race distance %VO2max values (0.95 for 10K, 0.82 for marathon) are approximations. Actual values vary by individual (10K typically ~90-95% VO2max, marathon ~75-85% VO2max). Age and gender adjustments are normative approximations, not from Daniels & Gilbert's original work.

2. Carbohydrate Rate Calculation

Guidelines: Jeukendrup (2014) - Carbohydrate oxidation rates by duration and intensity

Reference: Jeukendrup AE. Nutrition for endurance sports: marathon, triathlon, and road cycling. Journal of Sports Sciences, 29:S91-S99, 2014

Formula

Base Rate by Duration (Jeukendrup 2014 Guidelines):

  • < 45-60 min: Minimal/no intake needed (mouth-rinse may help)
  • 45-90 min: 30-40 g/hr
  • 1.5-2.5 hrs: 60 g/hr
  • > 2.5 hrs: Up to 90 g/hr (requires 2:1 glucose:fructose)

Note: With substantial gut training and 1:0.8 glucose:fructose mixes, some athletes can tolerate 100-120 g/hr (emerging research, not universal recommendation).

Intensity Multipliers (House Heuristics - Not from Research):

  • 90-100% HR max: × 1.3
  • 80-90% HR max: × 1.15
  • 70-80% HR max: × 1.0
  • 60-70% HR max: × 0.85

These intensity multipliers are our heuristics. There is evidence that higher intensity increases carb oxidation, but fixed multipliers are not from Jeukendrup 2014.

GI Training Multipliers (House Heuristics - Based on Gut Training Evidence):

  • Untrained: × 0.75
  • Moderately Trained: × 1.0
  • Highly Trained: × 1.2

Gut training can raise tolerance/oxidation capacity, but fixed multipliers are our heuristic, not from research.

Fitness Factor (House Heuristic - From VO2max Estimation):

  • VO2max > 60: × 1.2
  • VO2max > 50: × 1.1
  • VO2max > 45: × 1.0
  • VO2max > 40: × 0.95
  • VO2max ≤ 40: × 0.9

Final Rate = Base × Intensity × GI × Fitness

Capped at 90 g/hr (trained gut) or 75 g/hr (others). Intensity/GI/Fitness multipliers are our heuristics to personalize recommendations - always cap by tolerance.

Example Calculation

Marathon (3 hours), 80-90% HR zone, Highly GI Trained, VO2max 48:

Base rate: 90 g/hr (> 2.5 hrs)

Intensity: 90 × 1.15 = 103.5 g/hr

GI Training: 103.5 × 1.2 = 124.2 g/hr

Fitness: 124.2 × 1.0 = 124.2 g/hr

Cap at 90 g/hr (trained gut)

Final Rate: 90 g/hr

3. Fluid Rate Calculation

Guidelines: ACSM (2007) - Exercise and fluid replacement position stand

Reference: Sawka MN et al. American College of Sports Medicine position stand: Exercise and fluid replacement. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 39:377-390, 2007

ACSM Recommendations

ACSM 2007 Position Stand states:

  • Individualize fluid replacement to sweat rate
  • Start exercise euhydrated
  • Avoid >2% body mass loss
  • Do not recommend fixed ml/kg/hr formulas

Our Calculation Approach:

If measured sweat rate is provided (preferred):

  • Replace 80-100% of measured sweat rate
  • Convert L/hr to ml/hr (× 1000)

If sweat rate not provided (estimated):

  • Base estimate: 12 ml/kg/hr × body weight (house heuristic)
  • Adjust for temperature and intensity (house heuristics)
  • Use measured sweat rate whenever possible for accuracy

Safety Caps:

  • Minimum: 400 ml/hr
  • Maximum: 1,200 ml/hr (lowered from 2,000 ml/hr for safety)

Important: Typical safe intake ranges are 400-800 ml/hr. Exceeding 800-1,000 ml/hr raises hyponatremia risk except in very high sweaters. Our cap is set at 1,200 ml/hr for safety. Individual sweat rate testing is strongly recommended.

Example Calculation

Preferred Method: Measured sweat rate: 1.0 L/hr

Sweat rate: 1.0 L/hr = 1,000 ml/hr

Replace 85%: 1,000 × 0.85 = 850 ml/hr

Final Rate: 850 ml/hr

Always base fluid intake on measured sweat rate when available.

4. Sodium Rate Calculation

Guidelines: Baker (2017) - Sweat sodium concentration research

Reference: Baker LB. Sweating Rate and Sweat Sodium Concentration in Athletes: A Review of Methodology and Intra/Interindividual Variability. Sports Medicine, 47(1):111-128, 2017

Sweat Sodium Concentration

From Baker (2017):

  • Range: 10-90 mmol/L (~230-2,070 mg/L)
  • Inter-individual variance is very large (3-fold differences)
  • Heat acclimatization tends to lower sweat [Na⁺]

Our Approach:

  • Use average ~1,000 mg/L (≈43 mmol/L) when sweat rate is known
  • Individual testing is ideal - values can range 500-1,500 mg/L
  • Fixed "hot vs cool" adjustments are oversimplifications

Standard Practice:

Many sports nutrition sources recommend starting with 300-600 mg Na⁺/hr during long/hot events, then adjusting based on individual needs and sweat loss.

Our Duration-Based Replacement Factors (House Heuristic):

  • < 2 hrs: 60% replacement
  • 2-3 hrs: 70% replacement
  • 3-4 hrs: 80% replacement
  • 4-6 hrs: 90% replacement
  • > 6 hrs: 100% replacement

These duration-based factors are our heuristic, not from standard guidelines. In practice, replace sodium proportionally to fluid replacement and adjust based on individual testing.

Example Calculation

Marathon (3 hours), sweat rate 1.2 L/hr:

Sodium concentration: 1,000 mg/L (average)

Sodium loss: 1.2 L/hr × 1,000 mg/L = 1,200 mg/hr

Replacement factor (3 hrs, heuristic): 80%

Sodium rate: 1,200 × 0.8 = 960 mg/hr

Final Rate: 960 mg/hr

Note: Individual sweat [Na⁺] testing provides more accurate recommendations.

5. Glycogen Supercompensation

Science: Bergström & Hultman (1966) - Muscle glycogen synthesis after exercise

Reference: Bergström J, Hultman E. Muscle glycogen synthesis after exercise: An enhancing factor localized to the muscle cells in man. Nature, 210:309-310, 1966

Typical Glycogen Storage

Normal Whole-Body Glycogen:

  • ~500-600 g total (~500 g muscle + ~100 g liver in average-sized adults)
  • Can increase substantially with proper loading

Standard Loading Protocol (Research-Based):

  • 10-12 g carbohydrate per kg body weight per day
  • For 36-48 hours before events >90 minutes
  • Preceded by glycogen depletion/taper (optional, varies by protocol)

Example (70 kg athlete):

10-12 g/kg/day × 70 kg = 700-840 g carbs/day for 36-48 hours

Our Body-Weight Bin Approach (Simplified Heuristic):

  • Base estimates range 350-550 g depending on body size
  • Supercompensation can reach 500-900 g total
  • Loading protocols vary by race duration

For precise recommendations, use g/kg/day protocol (10-12 g/kg/day).

6. Metabolic Flexibility Score

⚠️ Proprietary Metric - Not a Scientific Standard

This score is our own, unvalidated metric. It is not from peer-reviewed research and should not be treated as a scientific standard. For accurate fat oxidation rates, measured FATmax/MFO from indirect calorimetry would be required.

Concept: Metabolic flexibility refers to the ability to oxidize fat and spare glycogen during exercise. Higher VO2max typically correlates with better fat oxidation capacity.

Higher fitness = better fat oxidation = less glycogen dependency = better endurance potential

Our Proprietary Formula

⚠️ The following formulas are house heuristics, not validated science.

Flexibility Score (Proprietary):

Score = (VO2max / 60) × 50 + (Fat oxidation rate / 0.8) × 50

Fat Oxidation Rate Estimate (Heuristic):

Fat rate (g/hr) = VO2max × 0.015 × body weight (kg)

Note: This equation has unit issues and is not from peer-reviewed sources.

Carb Oxidation Rate:

Estimated from total energy need minus fat oxidation

Interpretation (Proprietary Scale):

  • 80-100: Excellent (elite level)
  • 60-79: Good (highly trained)
  • 40-59: Moderate (trained)
  • < 40: Needs improvement

For accurate assessment: Use measured FATmax (maximum fat oxidation rate) and MFO (maximum fat oxidation) from indirect calorimetry testing in a lab setting.

Complete Scientific References

  1. Jeukendrup AE (2014) - Nutrition for endurance sports: marathon, triathlon, and road cycling. Journal of Sports Sciences, 29:S91-S99
  2. Burke LM et al. (2011) - Carbohydrates for training and competition. Journal of Sports Sciences, 29:S17-S27
  3. Thomas DT et al. (2016) - Position of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, Dietitians of Canada, and the American College of Sports Medicine: Nutrition and Athletic Performance. Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, 116:501-528
  4. Sawka MN et al. (2007) - American College of Sports Medicine position stand: Exercise and fluid replacement. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 39:377-390
  5. Baker LB (2017) - Sweating Rate and Sweat Sodium Concentration in Athletes: A Review of Methodology and Intra/Interindividual Variability. Sports Medicine, 47(1):111-128
  6. Stellingwerff T, Cox GR (2014) - Systematic review: Carbohydrate supplementation on exercise performance or capacity of varying durations. Applied Physiology, Nutrition, and Metabolism, 39:998-1011
  7. Daniels J, Gilbert J (1979) - Oxygen Power - Performance tables for distance runners. Tafnews Press
  8. Bergström J, Hultman E (1966) - Muscle glycogen synthesis after exercise: An enhancing factor localized to the muscle cells in man. Nature, 210:309-310

Limitations & Individual Variability

While these calculations are based on peer-reviewed research, individual responses vary significantly. Key factors:

  • Genetics: Sweat sodium concentration can vary 3-fold between individuals (500-1,500 mg/L)
  • Heat Acclimatization: Changes sweat rate and sodium concentration
  • Gut Adaptation: Requires weeks of training to build tolerance to higher carb rates
  • Race Conditions: Altitude, humidity, and terrain affect requirements
  • Product Tolerance: Individual responses to different products vary

Recommendation: Always test your fueling strategy during training before race day. Use these calculations as a starting point and adjust based on your personal experience.